ASTANA, Kazakhstan, December 4. Dutch banking group ING forecasts that the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) may raise its base rate to 19-20 percent in the first quarter of 2026 amid elevated inflation risks, Trend reports via ING.
According to ING, inflation in Kazakhstan is expected to remain in double digits through next year, reaching around 15 percent year-on-year by the first quarter of 2026. Monetary easing, therefore, is not anticipated before the second half of 2026, with the base rate potentially declining toward 17 percent by the end of that year.
The outlook follows the decision by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 18 percent, after raising it from 16.5 percent in October. According to ING, this decision comes on the heels of a larger-than-expected 150 basis point hike in October, which contributed to a slight reduction in inflation to 12.6 percent year-on-year.
Looking ahead, the NBK projects inflation to be in the range of 12-13 percent for 2025, easing to between 9.5 and 12.5 percent in 2026, and further declining to 5.5-7.5 percent by the end of 2027.
The bank has indicated that it does not foresee any room for interest rate cuts before the second half of 2026, citing persistently high inflation expectations, core inflation trends, and the delayed effects of planned tariff and tax reforms. Additionally, it noted that further tightening remains a possibility if there are no clear signs of a sustained slowdown in inflation.
